In einem wirklich beeindruckenden Blog erzählt der kanadische Highroller und Sportwetter Haralabos Voulgaris über seine Erfahrungen mit FullTilt Poker, Ray. Haralabos Voulgaris Poker Spieler Profil. Die aktuellsten Informationen, Gewinne und Galerie. Uhr aufstehen, Zähne putzen, anziehen; Arbeit; Spiele des Tages. Marvel Puzzle Quest ☑ – “Big Enchilada” # mit Gamora (Guardians of the Galaxy).
Haralabos VoulgarisMit Standort twittern. Du kannst deine Tweets vom Web aus und über Drittapplikationen mit einem Standort versehen, wie z.B. deiner Stadt oder deinem. What Haralabos Voulgaris' New Front Office Job In Dallas Says About Sports Betting And The NBA. Veteran sports bettor and poker player. Haralabos VoulgarisVerifizierter Account. @haralabob. Head of Quantitative Research and Something or Other Dallas Mavericks. Irresponsibly.
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Voulgaris was well aware of these predecessors. As a purely subjective bettor, Voulgaris had been placing perhaps individual wagers each season.
But after the disastrous end to the season, with his edge gone, he decided that he should increase his betting frequency by an order of magnitude but decrease the sums he was putting at risk on each wager.
It only made probabilistic sense. If his return on investment ROI fell from 20 percent to, say, 5 percent, that was okay. This new approach would require an enormous amount of research and analysis.
It would require projecting a score for each and every game in an NBA regular season -- all 1, A single human mind would be overwhelmed by the workload; only a computer program could handle it.
Voulgaris chose the right moment to start building a predictive model for NBA games. Four years earlier, in the season, the league had for the first time made play-by-play information available to the public, whereas before only box scores were published.
This trove of fresh information had no immediate practical value, except perhaps to assuage fan curiosity.
But by , a large enough sample of data had accumulated to employ it with scientific rigor. To help him build his model, Voulgaris required a specialist in the field, a mind trained in the codes of statistics, mathematics and computer science.
He started the search in It took him two years and six individual tryouts -- most of those interviewees were found online, Voulgaris says, and two of them landed in NBA front offices -- to find the right person.
The right person was a literal math prodigy. As a preteen, he had won national math contests; he had been the subject of awestruck articles in major newspapers.
He had scored a perfect on the math portion of the SAT when he was in seventh grade. At the time of his interview with Voulgaris, he had just quit a high-paying job designing algorithms for an East Coast hedge fund with a roster of Nobel-grade quant talent.
The relationship got off to a rocky start. To do so, they would have to break the game down into its basic unit, the possession.
Each simulation would therefore be a series of mini-simulations. First, the program would have to predict the number of possessions each matchup would likely produce.
Then it would need to judge the likeliest outcome of each possession: Score or no score; one point, two points or three; micro-forecasts ascertained from historical performance data.
It would also have to take into account a vast number of potential occurrences, each missed shot or successful rebound creating the possibility of still other occurrences -- a garden of explosively forking paths, as if in parallel universes.
The program would run tens of thousands of simulations for each matchup, discarding the most outlandish or improbable results.
It would be a black box -- prophecy as output. Between the statistical analysis, the algorithms and the programming, it took two years to create their first model, version 1.
Voulgaris continued to bet subjectively, marking time until the model was ready. When they finished, they called it Ewing.
At some point in the process of breaking the game down into its component parts, they realized that Ewing would also require a kind of feeder model, one that could forecast the lineups a team would most likely use each game and the minutes each player was likely to see on the court.
Subscriber Account active since. Voulgaris has made a name for himself identifying patterns, locating edges, and developing models and algorithms to beat the sportsbooks.
According to Voulgaris, this is not really a big advantage as the data can be found by regular players if they do the right research, at least for NFL games.
In other words, a player can see the ownership data on Thursday and the patterns will likely still be the same on Sunday.
Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Download as PDF Printable version. Deutsch Edit links. Through the Peloponnese, he headed to Morea and from there settled on the Ottoman-free Ionian island.
The author Stefanos Voulgaris has claimed that their family tree is well-traced and that the Voulgaris family of Corfu is unrelated to the Voulgaris family of the founder of Bulgari , Sotirios Voulgaris.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Matias Interview - from 5k to 20k. Jonas Gjelstad Documentary Series - from 10k to 1m. Bob made all of his sports betting fortunes from Basketball.
Losing a third of his bankroll in one month After five years of success, Bob hit the wall in when he went on a long run of losses, losing a third of his bankroll in one month.
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